【摘要】家庭承包责任制的建立极大地促进了我国的粮食生产，但是随着生产力的进一步发展，这一制度创新也面临一些新的问题。以家庭为单位的小规模生产难以适应市场化、产业化、组织化的要求，因此，适度规模经营成为我国粮食生产未来的发展方向。在实现规模经营的两种途径中，土地流转虽然能够扩大生产规模，但是无法实现农民组织化；粮食合作社则在家庭分散经营的基础上，不仅取得了规模经营的好处，而且可以提高农民组织化程度，是我国粮食生产实现产业化、现代化、农民组织化的重要途径。各级政府也十分重视粮食合作社的发展，但同时也存在不少问题。粮食合作社发展相对缓慢，在整个农民专业合作社中所占比例不高。在市场经济时代，农户应该是粮食合作社发展的主体，但是参加粮食合作社的农户比例不高，农户参与积极性有待提高。

　　本研究先通过对农户生产行为和合作组织相关理论进行回顾和综述，构建了本文研究的理论基础。然后在对浙江、山东、江西三个省的545户调查数据进行描述分析的基础上，构建了多元线性回归模型对农户水稻净收入进行了分析，进而运用Logistic模型对影响稻农参与粮食合作社行为的影响因素进行实证分析。得出的一些主要结论是：

　　第一，水稻农户通过参与粮食专业合作社可以实现水稻生产的规模效应，减少成本投入，增加水稻收益。宏观上有利于提高农民的组织化程度，提高小农户在市场上的谈判地位，减少单个农户面对的自然风险。有利于减少抛荒现象，维护国家粮食安全。有利于农业机械化程度的提高和先进农业技术的推广，提高农业现代化水平。

　　第二，水稻农户参与粮食合作社的行为受到以下几方面的影响：农户家庭特征、水稻生产经营特征、外部环境特征和水稻生产目的。分析表明：户主文化程度、农业收入占家庭收入的比例、从事水稻生产劳动力数量、水稻种植面积、水稻商品化率、参加水稻培训次数、当地是否实行水稻保险和水稻补贴金额等因素会对稻农参与粮食专业合作社的行为有显着影响。

　　第三，政府的支持程度对水稻农户参与粮食合作社行为有显着影响。政府支持较多的省份和地区，粮食合作社的发展程度也比较好。

　　基于以上分析，总结研究结论，提出相关建议，加快并规范粮食合作社发展。

　　【关键词】农户；农户行为；粮食合作社；多元线性回归；Logistic模型

　　【Abstract】The establishment of the household contract responsibility system has greatly contributed to China’s grain production, but with the further development of productive forces, the system is also facing some new problems. Small-scale farmers are difficult to adapt to modern agriculture. Therefore, moderate scale management becomes the future development of China’s grain production. There are two ways to achieve scale production, Land transfer can only enlarge the production scale, farmers organization can not be achieved; Grain cooperatives built on the basis of family production not only make the benefits of scale production, but also can improve the level of organization. This is an important way to achieve agricultural modernization, industrialization of grain production and farmers organization. In recent years, government has paid more attention to the development of the grain cooperatives, and it comes on some policies and measures in succession for the development of grain cooperative, but some difficulties still exist. The pace of development of grain cooperatives is relatively slow; the proportion of grain cooperatives in farmer cooperatives is too low. In the condition of the market economy, farmers should be the principal part of the grain specialized cooperatives ultimately. The most important problem is that the ratio of the farmers participates in grain cooperatives is very low.

　　The thesis firstly reviews and summarizes the literatures on the Farmer behavior, development of the grain cooperatives and the performance of income-increasing of grain specialized cooperatives.545 peasant households in Zhejiang, Shandong and Jiangxi Province were investigated to study farmers’ behavior. Multiple linear regression models was constructed to analyze the performance of income-increasing of grain cooperatives based on the descriptive statistics of household characteristics, plant situation and their behavior of participating grain Cooperatives. Going a step further, the study uses logistic model to demonstrate the influencing factors of the farmers who accede to grain cooperatives or not. Some of the main conclusions drawn are:

　　First, rice farmers through participation in grain cooperatives can achieve scale rice production, reducing input costs, increasing rice yield. It helps improve the degree of organization of farmers in the macro sense. It not only can help small farmers enhance the bargaining position in the market to reduce the natural risks faced by individual farmers, but also help reduce the phenomenon of land abandoned and safeguarding national food security. Help improve the level of mechanization of agriculture and the promotion of advanced agricultural technology to improve the level of agricultural modernization.

　　Second, the rice farmers’ participation behavior of grain Cooperatives are affected by the following areas: household characteristics of farmers, rice production characteristics, external environment characteristics and production purpose of rice farmers. Analysis shows: education level, proportion of agricultural income, the amount of labor in rice production, rice planting area, commercial rate of rice, number of times to participate in the training of rice, local rice insurance, and other factors have a significant impact on rice farmers’ participation behavior of grain Cooperatives.

　　Third, government support has a significant effect on rice farmers’ behavior of participation in grain cooperatives. The more government supports in the provinces, the better the degree of development of grain cooperatives.

　　According to the analyses above, this paper summarizes the research conclusion, and proposes some relevant suggestions, quickens and regulates the development of the grain cooperatives.

　　【Key words】rice farmer；farmer behavior；grain cooperatives；multiple linear regression model；Logistic model