【摘要】农民专业合作社，作为一种将农民组织起来进入市场的组织制度安排，被看作是推进农业现代化、提高农民收入水平、促进城乡协调发展、解决“三农”问题的有效手段之一并得到迅速发展。然而，随着农民专业合作社规模的逐渐扩大，数量的逐渐增多，在国内和国际两个市场的竞争中，面临着许多新的矛盾和困境，合作社的发展也存在着更多新的、更大的潜在风险。所以，要解决“三农”问题，就必须发展农民专业合作社；要发展农民专业合作社，就必须关注合作社运营中的风险，尽可能地规避和防范风险。

　　四川省是西部地区的农业大省和强省，农业在四川省乃至全国都有着重要地位。农民专业合作社的发展为四川农业的发展提供了必要条件。然而，当前，四川农民专业合作社普遍存在着组织管理机制混乱、制度执行不规范、契约关系松散、技术推广效果差、财务风险突出等问题，再加上四川省特有的外界自然条件，使合作社运营不顺畅，运营风险高。如何规避和防范合作社运营风险，促进合作社健康良性发展，成为四川省农业发展面临的首要问题。因此，对四川省农民专业合作社运营风险防范的研究是非常必要的。

　　本文在研读大量文献的基础上，指出防范合作社运营风险的必要性。在对四川省49家合作社、289家合作社成员调研的基础上，采用描述性统计方法、案例分析法、SWOT等方法阐述了当前合作社的运营现状。然后，根据系统分析法，对合作社运营风险的影响因素进行识别，并对这些因素进行主成分分析，从而选出合作社运营中的主要风险。再针对主要风险，以合作经济相关理论和财务风险管理理论为基础，结合四川省合作社运营的内外部环境分析各类主要风险的成因。最后，利用风险管理理论，对合作社运营风险进行风险防范，主要以转移风险、回避风险、控制风险为直接目标，提出切实可行的一系列防范措施。

　　本研究主要分为4个部分，通过分析得出以下主要结果和结论：

　　(1)四川省农民专业合作社在组织管理、利益分配机制、服务内容、与成员的联系及合作社财务管理等几方面都存在着问题，社员的利益诉求不能有效地得到表达，合作社成为大户、领办机构的攫取国家的扶持、优惠政策、挤占政府的支农资源的载体，违反了合作社的宗旨，影响合作社运营。

　　(2)契约信用及内部管理风险、自然环境风险、财务风险和外部支持风险是四川省农民专业合作社运营的四大主要风险，说明合作社运营不仅受到内部因素的影响，外部因素对其影响也是不可忽视的。

　　(3)合作社的契约信用风险与管理风险是相互交织，相互影响的，各类子风险也是相互作用；自然环境风险是客观的且不可控的，但四川省特有的农业经营环境加大了合作社的运营风险；资金利润率不高和现金不足是合作社产生财务风险的根本原因；农业产品的特性和合作社的当前规模使农产品市场风险大；外部支持的不连续性、政策的不完善性、支持主体管理的不科学性是合作社外部支持风险产生的原因。

　　(4)强化内部利益连接机制，提升管理水平，降低合作社契约信用风险和内部管理风险；加强环境保护，提高天气预报的正确性，加强农业基础设施建设、推行和完善农业保险，以降低自然环境风险；加快发展农产品期货市场，完善财务制度，改变财务观念，提高财务人员素质和对企业财务资源的优势整合，能防范合作社市场风险及财务风险；转变外部支持观念，加大支持力度，以提高外部支持的作用。

　　【关键词】运营风险；风险因素；风险成因；风险防范；农民专业合作社

　　【Abstract】 Farmers’cooperatives, as the organization of institutional arrangements into the market for organize farmers, has been seen as one of effective means to promote agricultural modernization and increase their income levels, and promote the harmonious development of urban and rural areas and resolve the “three rural” issue, and developed rapidly. However, with the scale of farmers’ cooperatives gradually expanded, the number gradually increased, is now facing many new contradictions and dilemmas in the market competition both in domestic and international, and there are more new, more potential risks in the development of cooperatives. Therefore, to solve the "three rural" issue, we must develop rural cooperatives; to develop the rural cooperatives, we must be concerned about the risk of running in the cooperative as much as possible to avoid and control risks.

　　Sichuan is the major agricultural province and the powerful agriculture province in western. Agriculture has an important position for Sichuan province and the whole country. The development of agricultural cooperatives provide the necessary conditions for agriculture in Sichuan. However, the cooperatives organization of Sichuan Province exist generally many problems, such as confusion in management mechanism, lankness of standardization in system, loose contractual relationship, poor technology and the effects, the higher financial risk and the peculiar external natural conditions in Sichuan, and other issues, so that case to the running unsmooth, and the higher risk. How to avoid and prevent cooperatives operating risks and promoting the cooperatives to develop healthy has become the top issue in the agricultural development for Sichuan Therefore, it is very necessary to research the running risk of Sichuan farmer cooperatives.

　　In this paper, it refer to the need of preventing the risk for the agricultural co-operation on the basis of extensive literature study. According to the basis of research on 49 cooperatives,289 members of cooperatives in Sichuan, using descriptive statistics, case analysis, SWOT and other methods described the status of co-operation. Then, according to system analysis, identified the risk factors of the operating risk in farmers’ cooperatives. Then counter the main risk, based on the cooperation related theory and financial risk management theory, combined with the internal and external environment of Sichuan province described the causes of the major risk. Finally, preventing the operating risks of farmers’ cooperatives in using the risk management theory, aiming risk transfer, risk aversion, risk control for direct target, put forward series of feasible preventive measures.

　　This research mainly divided into four parts, and the key findings and conclusions:

　　(1)There exists problems in organizational management, interest distribution mechanism, service content, and a member of the contact and aspects of financial management in Sichuan farmers’ co-operatives, so that the interest of members can’t effectively express, and the farmers’ cooperatives become the carrier to grabbed national support and preferential policy, occupy the government’s supporting resource for manage organization, and violate the cooperative principle, bad to the operations.

　　(2)Contract and credit, internal management risks and natural environment risk, financial and marketing risk, external support risk are four major risks in operation in Sichuan farmers’ cooperatives, which declared not only internal factors but also external factors are very important in the operating procession in farmers’ cooperatives.

　　(3)The contract and credit risk is mutually intertwined with management risk, and influence each other, all kinds of risk are also crisscross action; The natural environment risk is objective and uncontrolled, but endemic agricultural environment in Sichuan province increased the operating risk; Low capital profitability and the shortage of cash is the root cause for financial risks; The discontinuity of external support, imperfection of policy, lankness of scientific of management the cause of external support risk.

　　(4)Strengthen internal interests-connecting mechanism, improve the management level, can reduce the contract and credit risk and internal management risk in cooperatives; Strengthen environmental protection, enhance the correctness of the weather forecast, strengthen agriculture infrastructure construction, implement and improve agricultural insurance, can reduce natural environmental risk; Perfecting the financial system, changing the financial concepts, improving the quality of financial staff and integration financial resources of enterprise can prevent the financial risk in the cooperative; Change the idea of external support, strengthen support and enhance the role of external support.

　　【Key words】 operating risk； risk factors； risk causes； risk prevention； farmer cooperatives