【摘要】 农民专业合作社对青州市农村经济发展和农民收入提高起到了积极作用,但也面临一些问题。本文以合作社需求理论和组织理论为依据,通过对典型县级市青州市农民专业合作社发展情况的实地调查,分析合作社发展过程中存在的主要问题及其原因,采用比较和回归分析的方法对农民加入合作社的影响因素进行研究,最后提出了促进合作社发展的政策建议。本文在农户对合作社需求的研究中把加入合作社后的不确定性作为农户的一个重要决策变量进行考察,分析了对待风险的态度对合作社需求的影响,从而丰富了合作社需求理论。本文基于青州市合作社实践进行的调查研究提出的政策建议,对于其它地方政府充分发挥合作社在增加农民收入,特别是低收入农民收入的作用方面,具有一定的参考价值。基于对合作社相关理论组织理论和合作社需求理论的梳理,对青州市农民专业合作社实践的调查表明,青州市农民专业合作社发展为农民提供了信息和技术服务,提高了农产品市场竞争力,为农民增收提供了新渠道,显著提高了农民收入,也提高了农民进入市场的组织化程度。青州市农民专业合作社发展存在的主要问题是组织规模偏小、经营合作社的专业人才缺乏、内部运行不完善等。把对问题的分析置于合作社发展促进农村经济发展和农民收入提高的背景框架中,可以发现青州市合作社发展面临的最主要问题是加入合作社的农户数量还不很多,合作社发展水平不高,对农民的带动作用还不大。结合合作社需求理论和现代认知理论的观点,考虑农村中低收入者的情况,调查了两个自然村合作社和村中所有农户对合作社的需求情况,并进行了比较分析。我们构建了合作社需求函数,建立了农民对专业合作社需求的经济计量模型,并采用回归分析考察了农户对合作社需求的影响因素。主要研究结论有:第一、对青州市农民加入合作社影响显著的因素主要有农户收入水平、农户对风险的态度、农户对农业技术的需求、农户对共同购买生产资料的需求和农户对共同出售农产品的需求。第二、风险偏好是影响农户合作社需求的重要因素。爱好风险的农户更愿意加入合作社,回避风险的农户加入合作社的概率低。在调查中我们还发现,很多不加入合作社的农户不是不知道加入合作社的种种好处,高收益,稳定收入,这些加入合作社的优势他们并不否认,但是却没有加入合作社,原因是存在着种种顾虑。为了增收提效,国家和政府实施了各项优惠措施,来扶持先进的生产方式,但收入最低的农民由于性格上的保守,往往被排除在这些先进生产方式之外,从而享受不到政策福利,有可能会产生富裕的农民享受到更多的制度优惠,而收入最低最需要制度优惠也最应该得到制度优惠的农民却与之无缘,导致制度的效果背离了制度设计的初衷。只有通过各项措施,使农民真正认识到他们的权益得到了保障,性格保守的农民才会积极参与各种代表先进生产方式的经济组织,也才使农村经济充满活力,农村社会更加和谐。第三、农户对农业技术方面的需求越大,也就越愿意加入合作社。调查发现,农户对于一些实用的技术非常渴望,许多农户都表达了得到实用技术的愿望。而农民专业合作社却由于种种原因不能满足农民的这种需求。而如果满足这种需求,就会受到更多农户的欢迎和加入。第四、农户对共同购买生产资料和共同出售农产品的需求越大,越倾向于加入合作社。我们还发现,尽管合作社提供了共同购买生产资料和共同出售农产品服务,但是还是没有完全满足农户的需求,实际上,没有加入合作社的农户中,仍有很大一部分有共同购买生产资料和共同出售农产品的需求,这一方面表示农民专业合作社提供的服务还需要进一步完善,另一方面也显示,只要提高效率,农民专业合作社会有很大的发展空间。依据调查分析的结论,本文从政府引导、制度保障、培训推动和加大扶持四方面分析了促进合作社发展,使更多农民增收的建议措施。

　　【Abstract】 Specialized farmers cooperatives contributed to development of rural economy and income of farmers in Qingzhou, but some difficulties exists in the development of specialized farmers cooperatives. Based on specialized farmers cooperatives demand theory and organization theory, development of specialized farmers cooperatives in Qinzhou are surveyed, and problems exist in specialized farmers cooperatives are analyzed, impact factors are s compared and regressed. Policies are also advised to promote the development of specialized farmers cooperatives. Uncertainty is explored as a variable influencing the decision to join specialized farmers cooperatives, and risk preference style is inquired, so the article adds to the specialized farmers cooperatives demand theory. Policies suggested can be considered by other regional government to develop specialized farmers cooperatives demand theory and increase farmer income. Specialized farmers cooperatives demand theory and organization theory are summered and sorted to analyze the development of on specialized farmers cooperatives in Qingzhou. As specialized farmers cooperatives develop, farmers obtain more information and techniques, the competitiveness of agricultural products is strengthened, and households earn more profit. Too small scale, lack of professional managers, and deficiency of inner operation are factors that hamper the development specialized farmers cooperatives in Qingzhou. In the frame of peasant income increase and development of rural economy, the most important problem is that the number of farmers join specialized farmers cooperatives is still small.Based on analysis on theories of specialized farmers cooperatives,development of specialized farmers cooperatives in Qingzhou, contributions of specialized farmers cooperatives to agricultural economy, and problems in development of specialized farmers cooperatives are analyzed in this article. Factors affecting peasant households to join specialized farmers cooperatives in two countries are also analyzed. Specialized farmers cooperatives haven’t develop enough to enrich more peasants.With consideration of peasants of low income, we surveyed the development of specialized farmers cooperatives and demand of peasants for specialized farmers cooperatives. A specialized farmers cooperatives demand function is established, and a model is developed. Factors influencing demand of peasants for specialized farmers cooperatives are regressed. The main results of our study are as follows.According the study, demand for selling agricultural product and buying agents of production together, income of peasant households, demand for agricultural techniques, and risk preference are factors that apparently affect whether peasant households join specialized farmers cooperatives.Risk lovers of peasant households more likely join specialized farmers cooperatives, and peasant households that avoid risk less likely join specialized farmers cooperatives. Though many peasant households know the advantages of being a member of specialized farmers cooperatives, they do not join one because disbeliefs exist. For the purpose to increase income and improve efficiency, governments enforced many policies. But the poorest peasants that avoid risks are exhibited out from the efficient production. The poorest peasants can not get welfare of policies. Sometimes this can cause the gap between income of peasants to be deeper, and this failed the purpose of the policy maker. If peasants really know their welfare has been safe, they join all kinds of economic organizations, and the society of countries becomes more harmony.Peasant households demand more agricultural techniques more likely join specialized farmers cooperatives. In fact, Peasant households demand agricultural techniques seriously; yet specialized farmers cooperatives can not supply them. More peasant households will join specialized farmers cooperatives if it can supply agricultural techniques.Probability of households to join specialized farmers cooperatives correlates with the demand for selling agricultural product and buying agents of production together. We also find that though specialized farmers cooperatives supply the service of selling agricultural product and buying agents of production together, but demands of many households are not be fulfilled.To promote development of specialized farmers cooperatives, the government should lead and educates the peasant households, and should supply supports and institutions as well.

　　【关键词】 农民专业合作社； 发展； 不确定性； 青州市；

　　【Key words】 Specialized farmers cooperatives； Development； Uncertainty； Qinzhou；