【摘要】农民专业合作经济组织是学者理论探索和现实实践相结合的能够解决“三农”问题的重要农村经济组织形式。近年来，江西的农民合作经济组织也已经逐渐成为改变分散农户应对市场并为处于弱势地位的农业商品生产者谋取或维护自身利益、增强其竞争能力的一种重要经济组织形式。截至2010年6月底，江西省合作社总数达9849户，成员总数为103092户，带动周边农户达97力‘余户。农民专业合作社在迅速发展的同时，依然存着不少问题。为了实现“十二五”期间全省农民专业合作社总数达到20000家的发展目标，需要深入开展农民专业合作社示范社建设行动，进一步优化农民专业合作社的发展环境，努力提高政府及有关部门的指导水平和工作能力。为此，找到影响农民合作经济组织生发的因素、农民合作经济组织发展的障碍以及非合作组织成员的态度，对推动江西农民合作经济组织的全面发展有深刻的现实意义。

　　本研究采用典型案例调研分析法、SD反馈动态复杂性分析方法、演化博弈方法以及数理统计分析方法等多种方法，通过对江西农民专业合作经济组织发展现状以及存在问题的研究来验证学者对其他发达区域研究的结论，同时通过实证研究，就影响江西农民专业合作经济组织生存发展的主要因素进行识别和分析，并在对影响农民合作经济组织生发影响因素、运作机制研究的基础上，利用系统动力学反馈与仿真分析技术进行管理对策的生成、检验及修正研究，并针对性地提出对策和建议。

　　通过研究得出了以下结论：第一，农民专业合作经济组织的出现有其制度变迁的基础，由于可以有效节约交易费用，解决家庭联产承包责任制下“小农户”与“大市场”的矛盾，分散经营的农户在自愿联合的基础组建了农民专业合作经济组织，通过组织化提高农产品的市场竞争能力，增加利益所得。但是，农民专业合作经济组织的产权制度安排并非完善。第二，在江西省各级政府部门的支持下，江西省农民专业合作经济组织从发展速度到规模上都取得了飞速发展，在实践中创建了各种因地适宜的发展模式。第三，农户的经营规模、农民专业合作经济组织的规模以及其所处的政策环境、农户对农民专业合作经济组织的认可和支持度等对农民专业合作经济组织的生发具有显著影响，而户主个人特征、社员的权利义务意识、入社时间、组织领导的任用等因素影响均不显著。第四，政府对农民专业合作经济组织的扶持直接体现在税收、资金扶持合作社发展，利用合作社为中介带动农民增收。第五，政府可以从合作机制的形成、合理的激励与约束、有效地配置政治资源、、社会资源、自然资源、教育资源、经济资源等方面给予农民专业合作经济组织的成功运行。第六，组织集中刘农地投资进行基础设施建设对农民增收作用明显，并且组织对农户经营原材料统一购买，产品统一销售对农民增收作用明显。

　　论文的创新之处：一是选择中部地区农业大省——江西省为对象，系统分析了江西农民专业合作经济组织的发展机理、运作模式与成长规律，其研究对象和结论具有一定的代表性。江西等农业占比较高的省份虽然农民专业合作经济组织的发展速度很快，但发展质量与工业占比高的地区相比却存在很大差距。以浙江、江苏为例，合作社的数量增长不快，但是现有的合作社不仅能够解决本土的农产品供应，还能够在某些领域促进优势农业产业链的形成(比如临海市的西兰花产业链就是在上盘西兰花产业合作社的推动下形成)，而江西在工业发展还无法全面反哺农业的情况下，农业发展的制度创新与落地就是值得深入探索。本文对江西农民专业合作经济组织发展机制的系统研究与现有研究结论形成有效补充，对今后全面深入探索我国农民专业合作经济组织发展规律做了有效的基础性工作。

　　二是深入全省农村各地入户访谈，调查覆盖全面，样本代表性强，数据完整性、可靠性和准确性好，为保障结论的可靠性、适用性提供了第一手数据支撑。本研究选择了代表性样本点并发放800份问卷，调查对象覆盖种粮大户、菜农、果农，养鱼、养猪、养鸭以及没有专业特色的小农等江西主要农业经营农户，采用多阶段配额抽样问卷调查法，以及入户深度访谈法，对当前江西农民专业合作经济组织的运行阶段进行了科学判断；然后通过611份有效问卷的分析整理，对江西农民进入和退出农民合作社的意愿以及功能评价影响因素进行Logistic多元回归分析，在已有学者的研究方法(主要是孙亚范的最优尺度分析)上进行了有效拓展，为指导江西农民专业合作经济组织的快速发展提供了科学决策的依据。

　　三是运用系统动力学的流率基本入树法，刻画了江西农民专业合作经济组织的系统结构和运行机制，通过仿真调控分析，进行管理对策的生成、检验及修正研究，并与实际问题进行比照，使得研究结论具有较强的科学性和指导性。在对农民合作经济组织发展复杂系统关键变量之间的作用方式分析的基础上，生成了此复杂系统发展的主导基模，利用基模分析进行管理对策的生成研究。通过历史数据分析、专家访谈及实际调研，确立了江西西昌渡湖畔蔬果种植专业合作社复杂系统发展的流位流率系，建立了流率基本入树模型。通过对系统主要变量农户利润、组织利润进行仿真分析，从系统角度刻画农民专业合作经济组织的优势，对政府、组织在系统发展与农民增收中的作用进行了仿真调控分析，实现了对管理对策的验证、修正研究。

　　受篇幅所限，本文研究还有很多不足，有些问题还需要深度挖掘和探讨。基于既有的研究，未来研究的拓展可以从以下几个视角进行：(1)本研究的部分结论是基于调查的区域范围而得出，对社员退出意愿的影响因素是否具有普遍意义还需要进一步在不同区域验证。(2)本研究没有就“新一代农民专业合作社”的发展情况进行探索，主要原因是江西目前还没有这类合作社，但是，作为传统农民专业合作社演进的组织形式，其在江西出现的可能性以及条件还是需要研究，以完善农民专业合作经济组织的形式。

　　#p#副标题#e# 【Abstract】The Farmer's Cooperative is an important rural economic constituent form in terms of scholars theory and reality practice, also can solve the "Three Rural” Issues. In recent years，the Farmer's Cooperative in Jiangxi province has gradually became an importanteconomical organization form which helps the scattered farmers to meet the market and agricultural commodity producers to obtain interests and enhance their competitive ability. Until the end of June 2010, there are 9849 cooperations, 103092 members and help more than 970000 farmers surrounding in Jiangxi province. But there are still some problems during the fast developing. In order to realize the count of co-operatives up to 20000 in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan time period，need to carry out in a deep-going way on construction action about the demonstration club with farmers' professional co-operative, further optimize the development environment of Farmers' Professional Co-operatives, improve the working efficiency and management ability of government organizations. Thus, the study of finding the germinal factors and obstructive factors of the Co-operatives and the attitude of non-members have great significances in promoting the integrated development of Jiangxi Farmers' Co-operatives,

　　In the study，use the methods of typical cases, SD feedback dynamic complexity analysis, evolutionary game theory and mathematical statistical analysis. Based on analyzing the present conditions, problems to test the research results in other developed areas of scholars researched, through these, identified and analyzed the main factors about the creating and development of Jiangxi farmers' cooperative. Overall research on the influencing factors and operation mechanism of farmers' economic organization, putting forward to and verifying some strategies by means of feedback and simulation analysis in System dynamics has been finished. Finially countermeasures and suggestions are proposed.

　　Following conclusions are obtained through the study:

　　First, the appearance of farmers' co-operatives has the basic of institutional change, which can save the transaction costs effectively, solve the contradictions of "big market" with "small farmers” under the household contract responsibility system. The fanners who decentralized management volunteer for building the farmers' cooperative, can improve the market competitiveness of agricultural products and increase the interests. However，the property right system of farmers' cooperative is not perfect. Second，under the support of government departments in Jiangxi Province, farmers' co-operative has made rapid development from the pace of development to scale, created development mode suiting local conditions in practice. Third，the scale of operation and farmers' co-operative，policy environment together with approving of the farmers has a significant impact on the organizations, while the characteristics of head of a household, awareness of rights and obligations of the members, the time joining the organization, the appointment of leadership and other factors have no significant effects. Fourth, the Government's supports for farmers' cooperative reflect in tax and funds directly, also taking the cooperatives as an intermediary to increasefarmers' income. Fifth, the government can help farmers' cooperative operate including the co-operation mechanism, the reasonable motivation and restraint, effectively configuration of the political resources, social resources, natural resources, education resources，also other economic resources. The last, investment on farmland and proceeding in infrastructure construction，unified purchase raw materials and sales can increase the farmers' income.

　　The innovation in this dissertation is concluded as below:

　　First, choosing a big agricultural province in central region— take Jiangxi province as an example, analysising the development mechanism, operation mode，law of growth of Jiangxi farmers' cooperative, the research object and conclusion have certain representativeness. Jiangxi province which agriculture accounts for higher, although farmers' cooperative developing fast，but the development of quality comparing with the area which industry accounts for higher exist a large gap. Taking Zhejiang, Jiangsu as examples, the amount of cooperatives increased low. Not only the existing cooperatives can solve the supply of local agricultural products, but also can promote the formation of agricultural industry chain in some areas (such as the broccoli industrial chain of Linhai is driven by broccoli industry cooperative of Shangpan), And industrial development can not reward agriculture completely in Jiangxi, the system innovation and landing is worth exploring.

　　Second, interview the household all over the province deeply，with investigation covering comprehensivly and representatively. Collect information integrity, reliability and accuracy to guarantee the reliability and applicability of conclusion. This research chosed representative samples and send out 800 questionnaires, subjects include grain farmers, vegetable farmers，fruit farmers, fishers and farmers who raising ducks and pigs also small-scale peasant with no professional characteristics，all these are main households in Jiangxi, used the method of multi-stages quota sampling survey and deeply interviewed and submit scientific judgments on operation phases of Jiangxi farmers' cooperative through the analysis of 611 questionnaires. The multiple Logistic regression analysis is main tool for the desire，function evaluation and influence factors of joining and exitting farmer cooperatives. Make an effective development on existed research of the method (mainly optimal multiscale analysis of SunYafan) and provide the basis for decision to guide Jiangxi farmers' cooperative development.

　　#p#副标题#e#       Third, use flow rate of basic law into the tree in system dynamics. Describe Jiangxi farmers' cooperative system structure and operation mechanism. Through the simulation anlysis countermearsure to controlling, creating, inspecting and revising was put out. Then comparing with the real problem, conclusion with strong scientific and guidance. Base on the analysis of the farmer cooperative developing complex system of action between the key variable method generating the main base bodel，use the base model analysis the generation of management measures. Through the historical data analysis and expert interview and practical investigagiton，establish Jiangxi Xichangduhu's fruits and vegetables planting professional cooperatives of the development of a complex system of flow rate of flow, bulid a flow rate basic into the tree model. Through simulated analysing the main variables of system and the organization profit and farmers' profit，view from the system decribing the strength of farmers' cooperative，siimulately analysing the government, organization and farmer income, realize the management countermeasure.

　　By the limitation of research, this dissertation has some limitations. Some problems still need to excavate and discuss deeply. Based on the existing research, future research can expand from the following view of this study: (1) part of conclusions are based on survey, the will of exitting for membership need to be further validate in different areas. (2) the studies did not discuss the development situation of “ the new generation of farmers' co-operatives", main reason is that there aren't such cooperatives in Jiangxi. As traditional farmers' co-operatives with evolution of organization and the possibility of appearance and conditions all need to be further studied, so can improve the form of farmers' cooperative.

　　【关键词】农民专业合作经济组织；生存与发展；合作博弈

　　【Key words】 Farmers' cooperative; Creating and developing; Cooperative games theory