【摘要】蔬菜专业合作社是农民专业合作社的一种主要形式。蔬菜合作社的建立可以提高菜农的组织化程度，帮助菜农适应市场，降低风险，增加菜农的收入。还能提高菜农的综合素质，推进新农村建设的进程。但目前蔬菜合作社帮助菜农抵御风险的作用并没与完全发挥出来。所以，通过识别、评估蔬菜专业合作社的风险，并对其进行有效的管理，就显得十分重要。

　　本文首先考察武汉市江夏区蔬菜种植业和蔬菜专业合作社发展的现状、存在的问题、及产生的根源，分析可能影响江夏区蔬菜种植业和蔬菜专业合作社的风险因素，为进一步的风险识别和风险评估打下基础。其次，制定问卷和量表，收集调查对象关于这些风险因素重要性程度的评价，然后通过因子分析法识别影响武汉市蔬菜专业合作社的关键风险因素，为风险评估做好准备。接着通过模糊综合评价法和层次分析法，建立评估风险的体系，并对长河蔬菜专业合作社进行风险评估。最后，根据评估结果，再次通过文献和专家，有针对性的制定蔬菜专业合作社防范风险的对策。

　　通过对收集资料的初步整理，发现江夏区的蔬菜专业合作社主要有一下特点：合作社数量增速加快；合作社成员数量偏少，合作社实力发展不均衡；大部分合作社的成员都是个体农民，有团体成员的只有两个合作社；业务集中在蔬菜的种植和销售上；合作社依托蔬菜基地成立的比较多，区域分布不均。经过初步的风险识别，整理出影响蔬菜专业合作社的18个风险因素：蔬菜加工与贮藏条件、合作社领导人的素质、合作社内部分配机制是否公平、本地的自然条件和社区环境、市场供需信息的获得、法律法规的完善和政府的政策支持、蔬菜木身的成长特性、蔬菜的运输条件、内部监督机制是否有效、蔬菜受自然灾害的影响程度、菜农素质、合作社内部决策机制足否合理、与其他相关组织的联系与合作、蔬菜种植技术、合作社内部资金状况、合作社市场扩展能力、菜农经济来源、菜农入社意愿。并从巾提取出内部管理风险、蔬菜层面的风险、外部风险和菜农层面的风险等四个关键的风险变量。利用模糊综合评价法对长河蔬菜专业合作社进行风险评估，得出该合作社的风险中等偏高的结论。其面临的最主要的风险是资金筹集的风险，紧跟其后的是合作社的市场扩展能力和蔬菜运输条件。最后，木文根据江夏E蔬菜专业合作社的特点，从合作社内部管理层面、蔬菜层面、合作社外部层面以及菜农层面提出了加强蔬菜专业合作社风险防范的若干建议：完善内部治理结构，使合作社更公平合理；釆取多种方式，解决资金短缺问题；选贤任能，提高合作社的领导能力；掌握市场信息，扩展蔬菜销仍市场；积极引进新品种，提高蔬菜的技术含量；建立健全流通体系，减少蔬菜损耗；加大政府支持力度，创造良好的政策环境；积极与其他组织合作，形成互补优势；规避自然灾害，减少蔬菜损失；加大宣传力度，提高菜农合作思想;提高菜农素质，促进合作社长远发展。

　　【Abstract】Vegetable Professional Cooperative (VPC) is the maim form of the Farmer Professional Cooperative (FPC). VPCs can improve the level of institutionalization of the peasants, help them to adapt to the market, reduce the risk, and increase the income. Still, VPCs can improve the comprehensive qualities of the peasants, and promote the process of the construction of the new countryside. But the role of VPCs helping farmers to reduce the risk doesn't fully play. So, it is very important to carry on the effective management， through the identification and assessment of the risk of VPCs.

　　Firstly，the issue will investigate the present situation and the problems of the vegetable planting and the devolvement of VPCs in Jiangxia district of Wuhan, analyzing the risk factors which may affect the vegetable planting and vegetable cooperatives. It lays the foundation for further risk identification and risk assessment. Secondly, we will make questionnaires and scales，collecting objects of investigation on these risk factors of importance degree evaluation, and then use the Factor Analysis Method to recognize the key risk factors of Vegetable professional cooperatives in Jiangxia district, getting ready for risk assessment. Thirdly, we are going to use Fuzzy Comprehensive Estimation and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to design the risk assessment model for VPCs. Chang He vegetable professional cooperative will be as a case study for demonstration. Finally，according to the evaluation results, and through the literature and experts, the paper will offer some risk prevention countermeasures for VPCs.

　　Through the preliminary sorting, we find the VPCs in Jiangxia mainly have these characteristics: the number of VPCs has risen fast; the cooperatives have little members and their strength is not balanced; most cooperatives members are individual farmer, and only two cooperatives have group members; their businesses are concentrated in vegetable cultivation and sale; most cooperatives rely on vegetable base and distribute imbalance in different regions. After the initial risk identification，sorting out the effect of VPCs of 18 risk factors: vegetable processing and storage conditions, cooperative leader's quality, cooperative interior allocation mechanism，the local natural condition and the community environment, market supply and demand information, the perfection of the laws and regulations and the policy support of the government, the characteristics of vegetable's growth, vegetable's transport conditions, internal supervision mechanism, the influence degree of vegetables by natural disasters, vegetable growers' quality, cooperatives internal decision-making mechanism, the contact and cooperation with other relevant organizations, vegetable cultivation technology, cooperative's capital condition，cooperative's internal market expansion ability, farmers1 economic sources，farmers' aspiration to join the cooperatives. We extract four key risk variables which mean internal management, vegetables, external risk, farmers for VPCs. Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Estimation we assess the risk of Chang He vegetable professional cooperative. The risk is high. The most major risk it faces is fund raising, followed by the market expansion ability and the vegetables transport conditions. Last, according to the characteristics of VPCs in Jiangxia, we give some suggestions to prevent these negative factors from the aspects about internal management, vegetables, external risk, and farmers: perfect the internal governance structure, making the cooperative more fair and reasonable; take a variety of ways to solve the shortage of capital problem; choosing people who are capable to be the leaders, improving the cooperatives leadership; control the market information, expanding the vegetables sales market; actively introduce new varieties, improving the technology of vegetables; set up and perfect the circulation system, reducing the loss of vegetables; strengthen the government support, and create a good policy environment; actively cooperate with other organizations，and form complementary advantages; avoid natural disasters, reducing vegetables loss; increase propagandist strength, improving farmers' cooperative idea; improve farmers' quality, promoting development of the cooperative.

　　【关键词】蔬菜专业合作社；风险管理

　　【Key word】 Vegetable Professional Cooperative (VPC); Risk Management