【摘要】 农业是国民经济的基础,在国家宏观经济布局中处于重要地位。自改革开放以来,我国农业产业结构发生了巨大变化,但仍不能与经济发展的要求相适应。

　　本文在已有研究基础上,首先对我国农业产业结构的变化进行了统计分析,然后从需求结构、要素结构及制度结构三个角度来对其影响作了机理分析,再利用计量模型来对上述的理论分析进行了验证,最后提出相应的政策建议。

　　本文的研究发现：改革开放以来,我国农业产业结构的变化主要表现为种植业产值占农业总产值的比重呈不断下降,而养殖业产值占农业总产值的比例持续上升。主要原因在于,第一,相对于种植业产品,国内需求和国外需求对养殖业产品的偏好逐渐增大；第二,土地资源的限制、劳动力的进一步转移、资本相对易获得性及技术进步导致养殖业获得较快发展；第三,土地流转的逐步放松、农产品流通制度的变革以及农村金融体制的改革对养殖业的促进作用高于种植业。实证结果分析进一步表明,需求结构、要素结构以及制度结构对我国农业产业结构的变化确有重要影响,影响最大的是需求结构,其次为制度结构,最后为要素结构。因此,本文建议：第一,调整农业生产结构,提高农产品质量;第二,推动农业产业化经营,培养农村要素流动市场；第三,加强农业推广体系建设；第四,进一步完善土地流转制度；第五,继续推进农村金融体制改革。

　　【Abstract】Agriculture is the foundation of the national economy and is in an importantposition in China's macroeconomic layout. Since the economic structural reform.China's agricultural structure has undergone great changes, but still not compatiblewith the requirement of its economic development.

　　Firstly, we make a descriptive analysis of the changes in the structure of China'sagricultural industry; Second, from the perspective of the demand structure, thesupply structure and the system structure, we make mechanism analysis on thechanges affecting the agricultural structure; Third，we use econometric models toverify the above theoretical analysis; Finally, the useful policy has been promoted.

　　We find from the 1978 to 2011 farming output value accounted for the totaloutput value of agriculture was a declining trend, the aquaculture industry outputvalue is in a rising state. The main reasons are, firstly, the structure of demand, due todomestic demand and foreign demand prefering to aquaculture products, lead to thedevelopment of the aquaculture industry. Second, about the supply structure,respectively, further transfer of the limitation of land resources, labor, capital relativeto land easily acquired as well as technical advances led to the relatively rapiddevelopment of the aquaculture industry. Third, in terms of system structure, thegradual relaxation of the land transfer, the reform of agricultural products circulationand rural financial system cause the aquaculture industry growing faster than farming,leading to further changes in agricultural structure. The econometric results show thatdemand structure，the elements of the structure, as well as the institutional structure dohave an important impact to agricultural structure changes. Demand structure is themost prominent, followed by institutional structures.

　　【关键词】 农业产业结构； 种植业； 养殖业； 影响因素；

　　【Keywords】 The industrial structure of agriculture; Planting industry; Breedingindustry; Influence factors