【摘要】 本文旨在研究中国生猪养殖规模演进的影响因素。首先利用宏观统计数据,分析了中国生猪养殖业规模化演进的趋势。宏观数据分析表明：2010年生猪规模养殖比重由1998年的23.2%增长到了64.51%,规模化演进程度逐渐加深。小规模养殖场出栏比重占30.01%,中规模养殖场出栏比重占27.9%,大规模养殖场出栏比重仅占6.6%。中国总体规模化程度并不高,中小规模占比大。消费需求、粮食生产以及国家补贴规模养殖场修建等政策方面因素驱使是中国生猪养殖规模演进的直接诱因。

　　中国幅员辽阔,各地区生猪养殖情况不尽相同,规模化发展参差不齐。四川省是我国的生猪养殖第一大省,规模养殖比例却只占到了50.17%,居全国第24位。虽然四川省生猪养殖规模化发展迅速,但规模化发展的速度及程度不及同产量级别的河南省(规模化比例居第7位),山东省(规模化比例居第11位)。

　　因此,本文基于宏观和微观实地调研数据,实证研究四川省三台县生猪养殖规模演进的影响因素,以期发现阻碍四川省三台县生猪养殖演进的障碍因素。本文研究包括七章内容,分别从宏观和微观角的实证研究。为获得实证分析数据,本研究对四川省生猪养殖大县三台县的4个主要生猪养殖乡镇进行了实地调研,获得了144份有效调研问卷。利用DEA分析法分析了不同规模的养殖效率问题,从生产成本角度分析了规模演进的原因。大规模养殖户更具有规模效率,而中等规模养殖户更具有技术效率。大规模养殖户猪场建设专业程、饲料来源、销售渠道中间环节和疫病防治等环节更为严格,是大规模生猪养殖效率的主要来源。养殖户作为理性的经济行为人,利润最大化其目标。

　　然而,四川省占主导地位的生猪养殖规模并不是最佳经济效益的大规模养殖,而是以中小规模为主。为深入分析四川省生猪养殖规模演进的决定因素,本研究采用有序多分类Logit选择模型,分析了影响农户规模化养殖决策的微观因素。发现拥有资本优势的农户更愿意选择大规模养殖。这些资源优势包括在村庄居住的时间,在政府机关工作的亲戚数量,家庭固定资产、养殖年限、养殖资金数量。一些外部的条件,包括农村专业合作组织、猪场近临公路以及土地易获得也促进了规模化养殖的发展。为充分发挥不同养殖规模的优势,政府应补贴大型养殖场修建,鼓励具有较多资金资本以及社会资本的农户利用资本优势募集养殖资金,流转土地修建更大规模的养殖场,形成“家庭农场”效应,发挥专业合作社的农户组织功能。

　　【关键词】 生猪养殖； 规模演进； 农户行为；

　　【Abstract】In order to promote China's large-scale hog farming to be more efficient andsustainable, this study analyzes the development of hog farming in China, factorsaffecting the development of large-scale farming. Firstly,using macro data, thisstudy analyzes the degree and process of scale evolution of hog production. Hogproduction in China has not deeply developed to larger scale. Most of the farms aresmall and medium size. The scale hog farming increases from 23.2% in 1998 to64.51% in 2010. The small-scale accounts for 30.01%, medium-scale accounts for27.9% but the large-scale only accounts for 6.6%. Pork demand, grain supply andgovernment subsidy policy maybe the main factors promote scale farming.

　　As China is a big country, different production areas are not all the same, thedevelopment of scale farming of different areas is uneven. The hog production ofSichuan Province ranks first, however, the evolution of scale farming ranks 24th,which is far behind provinces at the same yield level, such as Henan provinceranking the 7lh and Shandong province ranking the 11th.Analysing the scale evolutionof Sichuan Province can provide reference for policy-making. This study composedof 7 chapters, analyzing the factors from the macroscopic and microscopic view andthe perspective of economic benefits.

　　This study gets 144 valid questionnaires from Santai County, a main hogproducing county in Sichuan Province. Then basing on the survey data, this paperanalyzes the efficiency of scale hog farming by Data Envelopment Analysis. Largerfarms have more scale efficiency, but medium size farms have more technicalefficiency. Larger farms are more professional in technology, farm construction anddisease control. And larger farms have more convenient channels for purchasingpiglet and feed and selling pork.

　　However, economical efficiency can't explain the course of scale evolutiontotally, so by the ordinal logit regression model, this paper finds that farmers withcapital advantages prefer larger scale than others. The capital include generations in the village, relatives in the government, family fixed assets, experience of hogproduction and the costs for operation,whether join the cooperative, the distancefrom the highways,and land availability.

　　According to the research conclusion, this study can give such policyimplications: Give full play to the advantages of each kind of scale hog farming,built a reasonable structure of scale hog production. Sichuan province can develop a“Olive” type hog producing structure. And to realize scale economy of hogproduction, it is necessary for the government to provide supports to farmers withmore property and social capital to hold large scale hog farming, design and buildenough transportation facilities and ameliorate the circulation of rural land, thenrealize the “family farm” and organize the farms through cooperatives.

　　【Key words】 Hog farming; Scale evolution; Farmers' Behavior;